WinStar TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 24

by T.D. Thornton

The TDN Derby Top 12 shows a nice pyramid-shaped symmetry at this early stage of the season. The division champion sits atop the apex; the tier below him is occupied by a pair of undefeated horses (one a speedster, the other a closer), and the base fans out from there with an interesting cast of up-and-comers and proven juvenile stakes winners. From a bloodstock perspective, there is considerable diversity within the ranks, as the Derby Top 12 sophomores on this week's list are sired by a dozen different stallions.

1. CLASSIC EMPIRE (c, Pioneerof the Nile—Sambuca Classica, by Cat Thief)

O-John C. Oxley. B-Steven & Brandi Nicholson (KY). T-Mark E. Casse. Sales History: $475,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 5

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, KEE, Oct. 8; 1st, GIII Bashford Manor S., CD, July 2.

Next start: GII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4

Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Classic Empire

KY Derby Points: 30

The only thing that's changed for the Derby Top 12 frontrunner since last week's ranking is that we can now drop the “presumptive” from his newly minted Eclipse Award title as

champion 2-year-old colt. Now it's back to work, and a Jan. 21 five-eighths breeze in 1:00.75 (3/18) at Palm Meadows Training Center led trainer Casse to declare “all systems are go” for the $475,000 KEESEP colt to make his 2017 debut in the GII Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream. The two emerging storylines with the champ are: 1) Will his aggressive, tightly wound ferocity be what separates him from the pack or will it be his undoing as the Derby pressure ratchets up? And 2) Will he couple his early-career precocity with the upward development arc that is required to excel in Triple Crown-caliber races? He won the GIII Bashford Manor S. back on July 2, and history shows that horses who have won that Churchill juvenile stakes in the past (it has previously been run as early as mid-May) don't fare too well in the sophomore classics: Black Gold (1923-24) and Worth (1911-12) are the only two to have captured the Bashford Manor/Derby double.

2. MCCRAKEN (c, Ghostzapper">Ghostzapper—Ivory Empress, by Seeking the Gold)

'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whitham Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY). T-Ian R. Wilkes.

Last Start: 1st, GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 26

Accomplishments Include: 1st, Street Sense S., CD, Oct. 30

Next start: Possible for either GII Holy Bull S. or GII Swale S., both at GP, Feb. 4

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 10

Undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' McCraken holds firm at No. 2, working five furlongs in 1:02.20 (9/11) on Jan. 19 at Palm Meadows, where is building a foundation of breezes in anticipation of trainer Wilkes's pick of several Gulfstream stakes spots in early February. Falling in love with a deep closer as one of your top Derby picks can be a risky endeavor because a late mover will, to some degree, always be at the mercy of the pace and traffic in a 20-horse Derby field. But this Whitham Thoroughbreds homebred has an athletic (not plodding) way of picking his way through the pack, and Wilkes reported last month that the colt has filled out a little bit too, so it will be interesting to see him with a touch more muscle on his physique. The fact that all three of his wins were over the Churchill strip might not matter that much at this early juncture of the season, but it will be an obvious advantage should he continue to progress toward a Derby start.

3. MASTERY (c, Candy Ride (Arg)—Steady Course, by Old Trieste)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Cheyenne Stables, LLC. B-Stone Farm (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $425,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, GI Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity, LRC, Dec. 10

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GIII Bob Hope S., DMR, Nov. 19

Next start: Either GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 11, or GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 18

Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Mastery

KY Derby Points: 10

'TDN Rising Star' Mastery worked a 47.60 (10/115) half mile at Santa Anita Jan. 18, the undefeated colt's first published workout of the year in what has been a rain-hampered 2017 for southern California trainees. In a phone interview after the move, trainer Baffert outlined the game plan for his tall, long-striding $425,000 KEESEP yearling, who won the Dec. 10 GI Los Alamitos Futurity in his most recent outing. “I'm just going to give him two starts, if all goes well, before the Derby. So he'll run in March, either the San Felipe or the Rebel; one of those, I won't know until we get closer.” In terms of prep race scheduling, “he and American Anthem (Bodemeister) are sort of in the same boat,” Baffert added, comparing Mastery to the promising sophomore stablemate who is ranked at No. 5 on this list. It's quite possible that whichever one stays in California, the other will venture to Arkansas. Raw speed is Mastery's key asset; blinkers have kept him focused.

4. MO TOWN (c, Uncle Mo—Grazie Mille, by Bernardini)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Susan Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith & Team D. B-John D. Gunther & Eurowest Bloodstock (KY). T-Anthony W. Dutrow. Sales History: $200,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, GII Remsen S., AQU, Nov. 26

Next start: Possible for GII Gotham S., Aqu, Mar. 4

Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Mo Town

KY Derby Points: 10

Right after 'TDN Rising Star' Mo Town won the GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct in November, trainer Dutrow revealed that he had been conditioning him with longer-range goals in mind. “I wanted the horse fresh and happy going into his 3-year-old year. I didn't use this horse. I didn't pressure this horse in getting him ready for [the Remsen]. I feel strongly that we have not seen what this horse is capable of yet.” So far, Dutrow has been true to those patient intentions, giving his Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie) colt the month of December off and putting only three breezes into him so far at Payson Park in Florida. Considering that he might be idle until early March, the only way he can lose ground in the TDN Top 12 rankings is by being leapfrogged by an eye-opening performer. But where Mo Town stands in pre-Derby media rankings means little to the colt's connections at this point in the season, so long as they can bring to fruition their conservative plan of having a fresh horse ready for the first Saturday in May.

5. AMERICAN ANTHEM (c, Bodemeister—Indy's Windy, by A.P. Indy)

O-WinStar Farm, LLC, S F Bloodstock, LLC & China Horse Club. B-WinStar Farm (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $180,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP; $435,000 2yo '16 OBSMAR.

Last Start: 2nd, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 7

Next start: Uncommitted

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 4

American Anthem is the highest-ranked horse on this week's edition of the TDN Derby Top 12 to have lost his last race. But his runner-up effort in the GIII Sham S. at Santa Anita made such an impression from a “test of toughness” standpoint that it whets the appetite to see what he'll do next. Interviewed nearly two weeks after that Jan. 7 try, trainer Baffert reported he likes how American Anthem has bounced out of the effort: “He was really game in the way he fought back. He could have easily given it up [when challenged]. I know Mike Smith was pretty impressed the way he fought back, and he you can actually tell he's progressed, he looks better since that race. He's learning how to run; first time two turns, you never know if they can go that far. He set some serious fractions and kept going. He's a big horse. You can tell he's not a sprinter, he wants to go long. I'm really happy the way he ran and the way he came out of it. He's progressing in the right direction.” Although Baffert did not want to commit to a specific race, he suggested that the $435,000 Bodemeister (Empire Maker) colt will likely pursue a two-prep-race path to the Derby.

6. GORMLEY (c, Malibu Moon—Race to Urga, by Bernstein)

O-Mr. & Mrs. Jerome Moss. B-Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY). T-John A. Shirreffs. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 7.

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI FrontRunner S., SA, Oct. 6

Next start: Possible for GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 11

Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gormley

KY Derby Points: 20

Chances are Gormley will draw another tough assignment if he goes in the San Felipe S., because at least one of trainer Bob Baffert's talented sophomores (see Mastery, American Anthem above and the “on the bubble” horses below) appears headed in that direction. But the $150,000 KEESEP RNA hasn't ducked top competition in his last two starts, and he bounced back from a trip-troubled seventh in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile to win the bob in a gritty Sham S. victory while spotting the runner-up five pounds. “He's quick. He starts quick, he gets away quickly,” trainer Shirreffs said after the race. “But then he checks himself as he gets into the race and he relaxes.” Eleven days after that Sham win, the Malibu Moon colt returned to the worktab for an easy, leg-stretching, half-mile maintenance move.

7. PRACTICAL JOKE (c, Into Mischief—Halo Humor, by Distorted Humor)

O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. & William H. Lawrence. B-Whispering Oaks (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $135,000 Ylg '15 KEEJAN; $240,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 3rd, GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 5.

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GI Hopeful S., SAR, Sept. 5; 1st, GI Champagne S., BEL, Oct. 8.

Next start: Uncommitted

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 14

Don't expect to see Practical Joke in the entries in the immediate future, but the Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday) colt belongs on this list because he was three-for-three last season with Grade I wins in the Hopeful and Champagne S. before enduring trip woes en route to a better-than-it-looks third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile behind champion colt Classic Empire. The $240,000 KEESEP yearling shows only one published three-furlong breeze so far in 2017 at Palm Meadows in Florida but has the potential to arrive on the scene fresh in late winter just as things start to get interesting and the top guns have already knocked heads on the Derby trail.

8. GUNNEVERA (c, Dialed In—Unbridled Rage, by Unbridled)

O-Peacock Racing Stables, LLC. B-Brandywine Farm & Stephen Upchurch (KY). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $16,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Delta Downs Jackpot S., DED, Nov. 19.

Accomplishments Include: 1st, GII Saratoga Special S., SAR, Aug. 14

Next start: GII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 4

Equineline PPs, Caulfield on Gunnevera

KY Derby Points: 10

Back in 2011, Gunnevera's sire, Dialed In (Mineshaft), was hammered to just under 3-1 when he won the Holy Bull S., despite coming into that race off nothing more than a debut maiden victory. Yet his son, a MGSW who has bankrolled $771,000 in purses, is likely to be a significantly higher price when he tries to win that same stakes Feb. 4 at Gulfstream. That's because a talented cast of characters, including top-ranked champ Classic Empire, is also aiming for the Holy Bull, and it also has a lot to do with Gunnevera, a $16,000 KEESEP steal, being an overachiever who must prove his GIII stakes wins in the Saratoga Special S. and Delta Downs Jackpot were not juvenile flukes. The colt breezed five furlongs in 1:00.85 at Gulfstream Park West on Jan. 21 in preparation for his 2017 unveiling.

9. EL AREEB (c, Exchange Rate—Feathered Diamond, by A.P. Indy)

'TDN Rising Star' O-M M G Stables, LLC. B-Dixiana Farms, LLC (KY). T-Cathal A. Lynch. Sales History: $100,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP; $340,000 2yo '16 OBSMAR.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Jerome S., AQU, Jan. 2

Accomplishments Include: 1st, James F. Lewis III S., LRL, Nov. 19

Next start: GIII Withers S., Aqu, Feb. 4

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 10

El Areeb has recorded two breezes at Laurel since his 11 ¼-length shellacking of the GIII Jerome S. field at Aqueduct Jan. 2. His Maryland form was flattered when High Roller (High Cotton), the horse who was favored when third behind El Areeb in the James F. Lewis III S. last November, subsequently won the $75,000 Frank Whiteley Jr. S. on Jan 21 at Laurel. This 'TDN Rising Star' has the tools to be a front-end force in the New York series of Derby preps, but trainer Lynch said after the Jerome that his this $340,000 OBSMAR grad is not the one-dimensional, needs-the-lead type of horse he might appear to be on paper: “He can rate. He's shown a lot of speed the last two times and everyone thought he had to be on the lead, but he's rateable.…We've worked him long and we expected him to go long sooner, we just didn't get the opportunity. The races at Laurel come up three-quarters and that's our home track.”

10. LOOKIN AT LEE (c, Lookin At Lucky–Langara Lass, by Langfuhr)

O-L and N Racing. B-Ray Hanson (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $70,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 4th, GI Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile, SA, Nov. 5

Accomplishments Include: 1st, Ellis Park Juvenile S., ELP, Aug. 6

Next start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 25

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 10

This $70,000 KEESEP colt has been quietly building a nice foundation of Fair Grounds breezes, each spaced almost a week apart and incrementally faster each time out, since Dec. 24 for his next expected start. If it comes in the Feb. 25 Risen Star S., trainer Asmussen will get to see where how his colt matches up against the Louisiana-based hopefuls who ran in the Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S., a prep in which the only serious players were the top three finishers. Lookin at Lee raced six times as a 2-year-old, and has already proven he has the ability to finish second and fourth behind the division's top horse, Classic Empire.

11. GUEST SUITE (g, Quality Road—Guest House, by Ghostzapper)

https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/the-factor-colt-keeps-finding-more/O-W. S. Farish & Lora Jean Kilroy. B-W. S. Farish & Kilroy Thoroughbred Partnership (KY). T-Neil J. Howard.

Last Start: 1st, GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 21

Next start: Likely for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 25

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 10

Trainer Howard said after Guest Suite's proficient 1 1/4-length annexation of the Lecomte S. that the gelded son of Quality Road (Elusive Quality) will pursue a GII Louisiana Derby path to Louisville, with the Risen Star S., his likely next start. Rating comfortably midpack behind dueling pacemakers over a muddy track, Guest Suite advanced at will on the far turn and leveled off nicely when set down for a long stretch battle to engage perfect-trip stalker Takeoff (Arch). Takeoff cracked in the final sixteenth, fading to third, while Guest Suite smartly repelled a fresh challenge from 'TDN Rising Star' Untrapped (Trappe Shot). Guest Suite isn't the flashy, eye-catching sort, but he has the makings of the trustworthy type of Triple Crown contender who shows up and does his job consistently and capably.

12. UNCONTESTED (c, Tiz Wonderful–Galileo's Star, by Lil E. Tee)

'TDN Rising Star' O-Robert V. LaPenta & Harry T. Rosenblum.

B-Richard Forbush (KY). T-Wayne M. Catalano. Sales History: $20,000 Ylg '15 KEESEP.

Last Start: 1st, Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 16

Next start: Likely for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 20

Equineline PPs

KY Derby Points: 11

When one says that most of the horses on this list were bred or bought with “the Derby” in mind, it's safe to assume that means the Kentucky Derby. But Uncontested's co-owner, Harry Rosenblum of Little Rock, Ark., purchased this 'TDN Rising Star' with the specific goal of winning the GI Arkansas Derby, a race he was third in last year with Whitmore (Pleasantly Perfect) and second in 2015 with Far Right (Notional). “As a 2-year-old before [Uncontested's Jan. 16 win in the Smarty Jones S.], I felt that this horse was a better horse than either one of them,” Rosenblum said of his $20,000 KEESEP bargain. “Not knocking either one of them because I still own part of both of them. But his numbers are better. I think he's got a much longer stride, and he's got a very, very mature mind for a horse of his age. He's easy to handle. Nothing bothers him.”

On the Bubble: Baffert updated the status of several in-the-pipeline sophomores: Dabster (Curlin) “is undefeated, 2-for-2, but he got DQ'd the first time out. He's always been a real lazy type of horse, just does enough to get by, but he's improved off of that first race. He came back, grinded it out; he's the kind of horse that he's just figuring it out. There's a lot of talent there. He showed a lot of grit [in his Jan. 16 maiden win], took a lot of heat and kept going. He's definitely one that's going the right way at this time of year. We could go allowance or stakes with him; he could run back in the [GIII] Bob Lewis [S. at Santa Anita March 4].” As for Jan. 13 debut winner Aquamarine (Gemologist), “we're going to point toward the Sam Vicente with him. It looks like a good spot.” Baffert expressed confidence that $975,000 KEESEP grad Reach the World (Tapit), third on debut behind stablemate Dabster, will break his maiden next time out and will have a future going long. He added 'TDN Rising Star' Beach Bum (Arch) is off the Derby trail because of a “slight setback” that will keep him out of training for 60 days.

The Dec. 26 maiden affair in which Dabster got disqualified got a little bit more intriguing on Jan. 21 when the horse who was moved up to first place, So Conflated (Eskendereya), showed good fight when winning the California Derby at Golden Gate Fields. The roan ridgling, owned and trained by the same connections as 2016 Derby winner Nyquist (Uncle Mo), was boxed and blocked at the top of the stretch before kicking free and accelerating quickly while slightly green late in the lane … Two-time Woodbine stales winner King and his Court (Court Vision), perhaps the top Canadian-bred sophomore right now, might attempt a synth-to-dirt transition in either the Withers S. or the GIII Sam F. Davis S … The $410,000 FTSAUG buy Battle of Midway (Smart Strike) earned 'TDN Rising Star' status with a seemingly effortless debut score at Santa Anita Jan. 21 … Impressive Edge (Harlan's Holiday), a $400,000 OBSMAR buy, broke his maiden with authority sprinting at Gulfstream Jan. 15 after a layoff and stable switch to trainer Dale Romans, who said he thinks the colt “just needed to mature.”

Smarty Jones S. runner-up Petrov (Flatter) will “probably” try Uncontested again in the 1 1/16-mile Southwest S. trainer Ron Moquett reported, noting that the lone-speed winner he chased had everything his own way over a sloppy surface … Owner/trainer Dallas Stewart scratched 2-for-2 Saint's Fan (Tale of Ekati) from last Saturday's Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds because he didn't like the outside post and will likely aim for a softer Louisiana-bred spot in February instead …

After caving as the fave in the Jerome S., 'TDN Rising Star' Takaful (Bernardini) rebounded with a sharp half-mile breeze Jan. 19 that could lead to an allowance confidence rebuilder or a shot in the Holy Bull S. “We're trying to figure out what happened last time and whether it was the track,” trainer Kiaran McLaughlin said … Trainer Todd Pletcher has four Florida-based 'TDN Rising Stars' that might show up in stakes company for their next starts: Fact Finding (The Factor), Battalion Runner (Unbridled's Song), Faja (Bodemeister) and Malagacy (Shackleford) … Trainer H. Graham Motion's New Jersey-bred 'Rising Star' Irish War Cry (Curlin) posted his first workout Jan. 22 since arriving in South Florida from Motion's northern base at the Fair Hill Training Center in Maryland.